Things are not looking good for India right now. Be it economy, border issues, or exponentially rising Covid-19 cases. As of today (July 7, 2020), India has close to 750k cases with about 24k cases getting reported everyday but things are about to get worse given India is coming out of lockdown and all the restrictions are slowly getting lifted. The situation will be grim and gloomy if there is no vaccine soon.
According to a recent study by Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), based on testing and cases of 84 countries that account for over 60% of the world population, India might record 2.87 lakh COVID cases per day by February 2021.
The study has also projected an estimate of 200 Million to 600 Million cases worldwide without any vaccine or cure.
10 Worst Affected Countries by Feb 2021
According to the study, India will be the worst affected country due to Coronavirus with 2.87 lakh cases a day, followed by USA ( 95,400 cases a day), South Africa ( 20,600 cases a day), Iran (17,000 cases a day), Indonesia (13,200 cases a day), UK (4,200 cases a day), Nigeria (4,000 cases a day), Turkey (4,000 cases a day), France (3,300 cases a day) and Germany (3,000 cases a day).
The study, conducted by researchers Hazhir Rahmandad, Tse Yang Lim, and John Sterman at MIT’s Sloan School of Management, takes into account 3 scenarios:
- Current Rate of Testing and response,
- If testing increases by 0.1% per day from 1st July.2020,
- If the testing remains at the same level but rate of contact is set to 8 (one person infects 8)
As per the first scenario, the model predicts 1.55 Billion cases in 84 countries. When second scenario is taken into account, i.e increasing the testing by 0.1%, the model predicts 1.37 Billion cases. When all the 3 scenarios are taken into consideration, total cases around the world can go up to 600 Million.
However, the study also mentions insufficient response given the perceived risk, primarily by India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and the USA.
The research paints a gloomy picture for countries that are responding poorly to the risk of the deadly viral infection. The study also suggests that the future outcomes of the infection are more dependent on the willingness of the communities and government to stop transmission than the number of testing.
The study also reveals that cases around the world are being significantly under-reported and that the actual number is around 1.48 times higher than the reported numbers.